Interview with Paul Martin
By
Angelo Persichilli
The Hill Times
Parliament
is back in business but this session is different and the mood is almost
eerie. There have been very few times in recent political history when
events have ever been so...clearly confused. The federal political
environment looks like a Picasso painting and you have o be a real expert
to understand what's going on or why you see eyes on knees and a foot in a
mouth. The political scene almost makes you dizzy.
For
instance, you have to wonder why the national media continue to ignore a
real national leadership race that began last spring - I mean the
leftovers of Tommy Douglas' troops ‹ and try instead to suck blood from
a leadership convention that officially doesn't exist. So what? That's
Canada, the only country in the world that enjoys democracy without an
opposition.
Martin’s dilemma
If
Jean Chrétien has announced he is leaving in 18 months, why do
Martinites want to speed up the process only to shorten it by a few
months? many Liberals have been asking themselves.
Why risk the unity of the Liberal Party which, according to the polls, now
belongs more to Mr. Martin then to Jean Chrétien? There are many
answers but the most obvious is that Mr. Martin “owns” the Liberal
Party but doesn’t possess it. This is a very uncomfortable and upsetting
situation for Martinites.
Mr.
Martin is like a landlord who pays the mortgage on a piece of property
but, for 18 months, the tenant is freely reaping the benefits. However,
the reason why the Liberal party's landlord is upset is more practical
then moral. In fact, the question is: can he afford to pay for an 18-month
“mortgage” without being able to collect the income from the property?
By
better defining what the “mortgage” and the “property” is all
about, we can understand the frustration experienced by so many Martinites.
Let’s start with the latter. This Liberal government was thrown into
office for the first time in 1993 as an act of love; it was then confirmed
in 1997 as an act of convenience (there was no opposition, after all), and
in 2000 it held on to power again thanks to an act of desperation (the
alternative was giving the reins to Stockwell Day).
The
question many Martinites now ask themselves is why Canadians should vote
for the Liberals in 2005? Yes, polls are still favoring the Liberals and,
with Paul Martin as a leader, a fourth consecutive mandate seems to be a
foregone conclusion. However, time is the essence of the game at this
stage. And this brings us to the concept of the “mortgage."
Popularity
doesn’t come cheap. People expect performance, good organization from a
candidate, a vision for the future of the country and, most of all, a
solid plan to keep the economy prosperous. “Can the emotional commitment
to Paul Martin sustain itself for 18 months?” asks a Liberal strategist.
“In music how many weeks can you listen to Shania Twain’s number one
song? Experts will tell you that, at best, 12 weeks. After that, your
emotions starts looking for another tune.”
How
many weeks can you sustain the emotional support around a public policy
idea? At most six months, says the same strategist, “and, after that,
the interest of people goes on something else.” Even a national campaign
lasting 60 days, a period full of initiative, is too long for the media,
organizers and voters. “Do we really believe that a leadership campaign
is different?” asks the strategist.
To
put it simply, Mr. Martin has picked up too soon and they rightly fear
that it is impossible to keep the momentum for 18 months. Then there is
the organization: there is no doubt that Mr. Martin has the best
organization. However, even if you have the best car, it is hard to win a
race if there is no race. If you have the best car, the more you wait the
more you have no place to go but down. When you have a bad organization,
the more you wait the more you have no place but up.
And,
what about a vision for the future? Nowadays the future is tomorrow; you
blink and it becomes the past. Eighteen months is twice the time you need
to create life. Mr. Martin has to prepare for his vision when there is
already somebody, the tenant of this house (we're talking about Jean Chrétien,
here), who is shaping it by borrowing money from its account. If he
succeeds, in 18 months people will barely remember Paul Martin's name; if
Mr. Chrétien fails, it is up to Mr. Martin to foot the bill.
Furthermore, will the party have the good fortune of going to the polls in
two years time with the economy still humming along, as it has been doing
over the past five to seven years? We know that the Premier of Ontario
Ernie Eves is eyeing a Fall 2002 election because they are afraid to go
later, in the middle of a possible economic slow down. The fear is
especially real now that it look as if the U.S. economy will not pick up
soon.