who wants an early election?
by Angelo Persichilli
THE
HILL TIMES
In the Roman Empire,
when they wanted to find the culprit responsible for a particular action
or another, they would ask a simple question: Cui prodest? In Latin
it means, who is gaining from it?
You might ask the same question today in Ottawa because the most popular
question these days on Parliament Hill is: when will we be going to the
polls? And the second most popular second is: will the Governor General
play along by sending federal politicians to the polls, or, will she
explore other avenues?
So I'll apply the Latin savvy theory: who gains from an early election?
This is a tricky question because the answer is influenced more by the
position the members occupy within their political organization, than
their belonging to the political organization itself.
Everyone knows the political leaders now in Ottawa are living on borrowed
time. Prime Minister Paul Martin, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and
NDP Leader Jack Layton know they don't have the full confidence of their
members; nonetheless, all their members believe that the leaders deserve
another shot at it.
However, this also means that the sooner there's another election, the
better the chances there are to get rid of some of the party leaders.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois has a high number of seats,
but their fortunes are not based on their performance, but on the
misfortunes of others. Gilles Duceppe did nothing wrong two years ago when
his party was on the brink of extinction; at the same time he did nothing
terribly great to make his party the most successful in the last election.
The Bloc is the litmus paper of Canadian politics.
This means that Harper won't do anything to provoke an early election, at
least not before next March because he needs to solidify his relations
with his new party members, prepare the right policies and establish
himself as the leader of the Conservative Party, not the leader of
Alliance with a new hat.
Layton has made it clear he wants to enjoy the view of the House from
inside, especially after a long wait outside and a long and tough battle
against the popular former Liberal MP Dennis Mills for the Toronto-Danforth,
Ont., riding.
Furthermore, he's not too eager to engage in another fight in Toronto
Danforth any time soon against Mills. Layton's long response in the House
last week to the Throne Speech on the composition of his riding and the
obvious sucking up to the ethno-cultural communities, says a lot about his
concerns in the riding.
That leaves Paul Martin: will he do the best to make it work? It's a
complicated question because there are many elements involved. Since the
Conservatives aren't ready, the Liberals' popularity in Quebec is on the
rise and the Gomery Inquiry is on the way, Martin might be tempted to
"roll the dice" sooner rather than later.
But this, in my opinion, is a mistake: his party is not in any better
shape than the Conservatives. In fact, if the Tories see the light at the
end of the tunnel, then the Liberals see it as a beginning with no hope in
sight. His people have damaged relationships with many fellow Liberals
beyond repair and, short of anything but a convincing and deep shakeup of
the so-called "board," Martin will face the next election with
half of his party sitting on the sideline enjoying the show.
The "take no prisoner," arrogant, and confrontational attitude
used during the leadership race seems to have been exported into the
government and how they deal with the opposition parties. Basically, the
governing Liberals see it like this: we have a plan, it's up to you to
vote for or against us. They want to govern by pretending they have a
majority; which is something they don't have.
In the end, I believe that there is no plan to crush the government any
time soon. However, with so many snipers ready to shoot and leaders not in
full control of their respective caucuses, the House of Commons is
starting to look more like Toronto City Council than the federal
Parliament of Canada.
If there is no change in attitude, I believe that a defeat of the
government will occur sooner rather than later, and not by design, but by
"accident."
And this brings us to the second question: what will Governor General
Adrienne Clarkson do? Will she send them back to the people, or she will
explore other possibilities?
Usually it is the government that asks the GG to dissolve Parliament. But
in a minority environment, does the government still have that power? Is
the Governor General going to respond to a minority government or to a
majority in the Parliament? I'm no constitutional expert and the GG has
good constitutional experts helping her to cope with this dilemma.
However, constitutional experts aside, I feel comfortable mainly because a
person like Adrienne Clarkson is there in such a critical moment. She is
competent and wise, and I'm sure she will make, when the time comes, the
best decision in the interests of the Canadian people
