LIBERAL leadership race spinning into bad joke
by Angelo Persichilli
THE HILL TIMES
If
things don't start to change, the Liberal Party of Canada might be forced
to resort to the "classified" section in their search for a new
leader.
It seems that anyone who is unemployed‹ especially former
MPs ‹has a job opportunity in seeking the leadership of Her Majesty's
Loyal Opposition, with no experience required. The salary might not be
appealing to people like Frank McKenna, Brian Tobin, Allan Rock and John
Manley, but it's still a position with great potential.
The reality is that the Liberal Party, once a political
powerhouse that could always find the right strategy to hold on to power,
is now in such bad shape that it doesn't even know the difference between
government and opposition, left and right, or right and wrong.
Since Pierre Trudeau had the "walk in the snow"
exactly 22 years ago (Feb. 29, 1984), the Liberals are confused about what
leadership is all about.
They preferred John Turner over Jean Chrétien in 1984
and were decimated.
They had it right in 1990 with Jean Chrétien, the
person who brought them to government and held on for 10 years. But they
changed their mind and unceremoniously kicked him out, believing that Paul
Martin was their new messiah. We know what happened after that.
The difference between now and when Pierre Trudeau left is
huge. Back then, the Liberals were only looking for a new leader. But now,
they are looking for a party that only exists on paper.
In fact, during their 13 years in power, thanks to the divisions on the
right, they did not realize the seriousness of their problems. Power is
like a drug: it makes you believe that everything is beautiful, even the
Gomery Inquiry.
After Jan. 23, the drug trip ended and reality hit the Libs
like a ton of bricks. Frank McKenna, Brian Tobin, Allan Rock and John
Manley were the first ones to wake up. They didn't want to leave
comfortable lives to risk entering a party that was divided, in debt, and
possibly stuck in opposition for years.
They could all see the catastrophic situation in the party.
So Frank, Brian, Allan and John unceremoniously bowed out: Sorry, we're
busy.
Now we're left with a party in disarray. The remaining
potential candidates were labeled (incorrectly, in my opinion) "the B
Team." The strategists seem to be sitting on the fence, while the
rank-and-file members are confused.
"When they [A team] dropped out, they left a bitter
taste in the mouth of many people," one Liberal strategist told The
Hill Times last week.
Another prominent Liberal organizer complained that he had
made a fool of himself supporting one of the potential candidates who
bowed out. "You can rest assured that I will not commit myself again
for a long time."
They exposed those endorsing them, publicly or privately, and
they were embarrassed. With all the uncertainty, the Liberals seem to have
adopted "wait and see" as their new motto.
For some, this might be a risky strategy, because it leaves
the door open for a rival to jump into the car of one potential candidate
and get a head start. In politics, timing is everything and being in the
right place at the right time can be the difference between success and
failure.
In the last few weeks, Liberal "operatives" have
not been making commitments, but are monitoring each other very carefully,
with hundreds of phone calls going back and forth on a daily basis.
One of the elements used to justify their inactivity is the
need to defend regional interests. Many organizers are not closing the
door to potential candidates, with a scripted excuse: "But, you know,
Joe Blow from my area has some interest and I can't say no to him. If
he/she pulls out, I'll be with you." The standard answer allows the
confused Liberal to stall before making a commitment.
I never understood the particular qualities seen in Frank
McKenna or Brian Tobin to be a good Prime Minister for this country.
However, they had name recognition because of their previous careers and
that was enough to be considered a future Prime Minister of Canada.
Napoleon used to say, "Give me medals, and I will win
all the wars you want." This is important in an era when a 10-second
clip can make all the difference in the career of a politician.
So, the stranded Liberal organizers are waiting for that
10-second clip that might give them the answer from the potential
candidates of a "B team." But no one is asking any of the
candidates why they want to be Prime Minister.
So, let's take a closer look at who the members of this
"B" team are.
There are no potential candidates from the West. Liberals
from Western Canada will likely go with someone who has deep roots in the
party. This is particularly an important issue following the David Emerson
saga.
Saskatchewan, after Ralph Goodale, has no real organization.
"They are orphans," an organizer told The Hill Times last week.
"They have no local leaders able to convert others to be
Liberal."
In Manitoba, with the defeat of Reg Alcock, it looks like the
Sahara desert for the Liberals.
In Atlantic Canada there is the potential candidacy of Scott
Brison. He is definitely bright and respected, considering the short
militancy in the Liberal Party. Still, Liberals have some problems with
him because his roots are not deep. It looks like some of his meetings
last week in Alberta were not very successful. New Brunswick Liberal MP
Dominic LeBlanc is mulling over running.
In Quebec, there are three names flying around: Denis Coderre,
Stéphane Dion and Martin Cauchon. Mr. Cauchon seems to be dropping
out and Mr. Dion is well-respected, but his organization is non-existent.
He has alienated the former Jean Chrétien supporters and, of
course, he has no use for Martin's machine in the province. Mr. Coderre
seems to be the one with more clout, although the former citizenship and
immigration minister might be more interested in being the king-maker
rather than the king.
Then there's Ontario. In this case, it would be easier to
list the people not interested (me and my neighbor) and then all those who
have their names floating around.
Because of space limitations, and out of respect for
the history of Liberal leadership races that have included people like
Wilfrid Laurier, I limited my list of names to people who directly or
indirectly threw their names into the race a long time ago, ignoring the
numerous Johnnie-Come-Latelies.
The first potential candidate, in alphabetical order,
is Carolyn Bennett.
She is on the left of the party and it looks like she is more interested
in mobilizing the elements of this sector of the party. She might join
forces with John Godfrey.
Maurizio Bevilacqua: he has a good organization skills, is
respected in many business quarters and he might benefit from the
withdrawal of Martin Cauchon from Québec. It is hard to quantify
his strength because it looks like he is running a discreet, almost
esoteric campaign. He might be the underdog and could surprise many
pundits, but he might also be disappointing. He's holding his cards very
close to his chest.
Ken Dryden is intelligent and respected and has a vision that
many Liberals would share. I had some good and in-depth conversations with
him. The negative side is his problem with the 10-second clip. His
potential might explode if he can get rid of his image of "Canadian
Tired."
Michael Ignatieff has been openly active in recent months. He
looks to be the "frontrunner" because of his credentials, but he
is the one with less space for growth because of his credentials. He is an
academic who took some controversial positions in the past. He has the
support from most of the "elite," orphans of Manley's and Rock's
campaign, but he's been absent from the country for 20 years, and has some
leftovers from Paul Martin's "board."
John Godfrey: see Carolyn Bennett.
Belinda Stronach: the number of friends she has made is equal to the
number of her enemies. Especially because she is considered to be too
close to the members of the Martin "board." She might appeal to
some members of the party and there is no doubt that she has ambition to
lead the party. She has already started to put together an organization
but she has to work hard on the "French factor."
Joe Volpe: he is respected in the party, has good
organizational skills and academic credentials. He has already a potential
network around the country and is respected by many in the ethno-cultural
community. He is fluent in English, French and Italian. This is a good
thing, as long as he tries harder not to use his language skills for too
long and replaces the 10-minute clip with the 10-second clip.
How long will it take before they become the "A"
team?
According to Michael Marzolini, the influential president of
Pollara, "it is imperative for the Liberal Party to put the
leadership convention off until the beginning of 2007." Marzolini
believes that "the party needs a lot of time to talk about what they
believe in."
Meantime, the party isn't helping any of those hopeful
candidates, since it hasn't set any dates for the leadership race or
convention.
When I asked Dennis Mills, the former Liberal MP from
Toronto-Danforth, if he was running, he answered: "What race? I did
not hear that one was announced. Paul Martin has not resigned yet and he
is still running the party."
