U.S.A : Social Issues Constrain GOP
Analysis
by Steven R. Hurst(AP and OfficialWire)WASHINGTON,
D.C. (USA)
APTOPIX
Romney 2012
Once deeply vulnerable, President Barack Obama has
seen his fortunes take a dramatic turn for the better as the Republican
Party splits between its historic business-friendly establishment and the
powerful tug of more conservative and social issues voters.
Burdened throughout his term by the most severe
economic downturn since the Great Depression, Obama was expected to be
hard pressed to hold on the White House in November.
But eight months before Election Day, things have
changed. That's partly because the economy is finally showing signs of a
sustained recovery.
But the new wind at Obama's back blowing just as
powerfully is the GOP nominating fight, which is dragging Republican
candidates deep into conservative fights over social issues — territory
from which may be hard for the final GOP nominee to escape.
With divisive social issues dominating their
nominating contest, will the Republicans be able to eventually win over
the non-ideological independent voters deemed critical in this fall's
election?
Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and
once politically moderate multimillionaire venture capitalist, remains the
Republican front-runner ahead of the Super Tuesday voting in 10 states,
which will allocate 419 delegates to the party convention in late August.
Romney is well ahead in the battle for the 1,144 needed to capture the
nomination.
But Romney has been repeatedly knocked off his
economic message, especially by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum who
is courting the most motivated Republican voters: the low-tax, small
government tea party wing of the party and evangelical Christians who are
profoundly attracted to his stands against abortion and contraception and
on other social issues.
Many conservative Republicans don't trust Romney and
his moderate past. But he has, so far, been able to ride out that aversion
because Santorum has had to split the anti-Romney vote with rival Newt
Gingrich.
The latest social issue to rile the campaign has been
whether religious-sponsored organizations should be required to provide
their employees with health insurance coverage that includes free
contraception.
An uproar, mostly among Catholic leaders who reject
contraception on moral grounds, forced Obama to change the birth control
mandate. The new plan would require insurance companies that cover workers
in religious organizations — and not the religious organizations
themselves — to offer the coverage.
Just as the contentious issue started to fade a bit,
Rush Limbaugh, a conservative radio personality, forced it front and
center once again: On the air three days last week, Limbaugh called a
Georgetown University law student who had spoken out in favor of the Obama
plan a "slut" and a "prostitute" who wanted the
government to pay her for having sex.
The counter-uproar over those remarks and a backlash
among advertisers forced Limbaugh to issue a highly unusual apology
Saturday. Republicans, who normally shy away from criticism of Limbaugh's
powerful voice, joined in distancing themselves from words that drew
bipartisan condemnation.
But the issue seemed certain to deepen the concerns
of many women voters, who — along with the broad spectrum of all
independents — will likely determine the ultimate outcome in November.
Polls show women are already turning back to Obama.
Despite his seemingly better political position,
Obama continues to face huge unknowns that could still cast a shadow over
his re-election prospects: Among them, the still fragile economy and
numerous foreign policy uncertainties between now and November.
The price of gasoline, driven by uncertainty over
Mideast oil supplies because of a possible Israeli attack on Iran's
nuclear facilities, is higher than it has ever been this time of year.
That's a ready-made line of attack for Republicans and one that Gingrich
now is making the centerpiece of his campaign.
And, as employers have begun hiring again, bringing
the jobless rate down to 8.3 percent, it is highly likely that workers who
stopped looking for a new job will re-enter the hunt and drive up that
closely watched indicator of the economic recovery.
When the dust settles from the Republican primary
fight, odds remain heavily in favor of Romney because of his organization
in what's expected to be a lengthy fight for delegates. And if he wins the
nomination, disaffected Republicans most likely will rally to his cause.
Overriding nearly every issue with Republican party
voters is a dislike of Obama, particularly his health care law that forces
all Americans to buy health insurance. And in a general election against
Obama, Romney is likely to appeal to independents more than the
more-conservative Santorum or Gingrich would.
The question could boil down to how much the current
GOP focus on social issues will alienate that key bloc of independents,
once the party's nominee turns its focus to beating Obama.
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EDITOR'S NOTE — Steven R. Hurst is The Associated
Press' international political writer in Washington.
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