Chretien turns page
  by Angelo Persichilli
  THE HILL TIMES

 Prime Minister Jean Chrétien doesn't think about long-range impacts when he makes decisions: he's a tactician, not a strategist. So if he wants to run for an historic fourth term, he'll make that decision at the last moment and on his own terms

            But last week's cabinet shuffle - the biggest in his eight years in office - has all the markings of one prepared by a person who has decided to stay for the long haul. The changes announced last week don't just signal a future revamp of his team, they represent the coronation of a renewal started last year

            According to sources close to the Prime Minister, Mr. Chrétien (Saint-Maurice, Que.) was expecting more cooperation from some of his senior ministers to accept appointments and leave gracefully

            "Chrétien is now convinced that he has no political debts with anybody," the source told The Hill Times. In fact, the Prime Minister often tells his advisers that "having kept them for more than six years in government is enough reward for the help received during the leadership race."  Most times, political analysts and pundits like myself don't consider the importance that Mr. Chrétien has always placed on the 1990 leadership race events in Calgary, Alta. Political careers have been created and destroyed in the last decade because of the results of the Calgary leadership race 12 years ago. The axiom was very simple: the people who supported him were in government, those who supported Paul Martin (LaSalle-Émard, Que.) were put in a political hell. Things have now changed for three reasons

            First, more than one MP who has supported him have been left out in the cold without having the "cover" of being a Martinite and some have reminded the Prime Minister that those in government were not the only ones "that put you there."  Second, Prime Minister Chrétien had to take care of the rest of his caucus which is becoming more and more restless. Mr. Chrétien knows he can't keep dangling in front of them the carrot of "an imminent shuffle" forever. Yes, he has a solid majority in the House but he is also cognizant of the fact that all it takes to put him in a minority position is a group of 15 disgruntled Liberal MPs. And you all know that there are more than that in the governing Liberal caucus

            Furthermore, the Canadian Alliance caucus doesn't have copyright over rioting against a leader. (If I'm not mistaken John Turner was a Liberal and most of the people who signed the letters to give him the boot are now with Mr. Chrétien)

            Third, Mr. Prime Minister did need to have new faces in government in order to get rid of a perception that his government was no better than the one led by Brian Mulroney

            In order to accomplish those three goals, Chrétien has acted in two directions. He was expecting cooperation from some of his senior ministers to take a plum appointment and to get lost. This would have given him more room to renew. Meantime, he bought more time from his restless MPs by increasing their salaries, certain that their desire to be in government would have been compensated by a pay increase

            Unfortunately, not everything went according to the plan. The frustration of the Prime Minister grew so thick that he apparently told many of his advisers that "unfortunately nobody wants to leave." Rumours of the cabinet shuffle have been periodically leaked since last summer with possible appointments of cabinet ministers to the Canadian Embassy in London, Rome, the Vatican, the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario and, I am sure, there will be much more to come. Unfortunately, there were no takers, until last week. So, let's have a closer look at the shuffle

            Basically the people who lost in this shuffle were the pillars of his political machine: Brian Tobin (Bonavista-Trinity-Conception, Nfld.), Herb Gray (Windsor West, Ont.), David Collenette (Don Valley East, Ont.) and Alfonso Gagliano (Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel, Que.)

            Mr. Tobin, often described by the Prime Minister as "not a team player," is out. Mr. Tobin asked for an appointment with the Prime Minister last Sunday night and told Mr. Chrétien that he wanted out

            "What do you want, Brian?" was the question from Mr. Chrétien. The answer: "Nothing, I just want out." Last week, there were many rumours about the "screaming" on Sunday night at 24 Sussex Drive. The fact of the matter remains that at the end of the conversation it was Mr. Tobin who had a walk in the snow and the reasons are not necessarily "exclusively related to the family." Mr. Tobin, the king of the Atlantic, is gone

            Next, you know what happened to Herb Gray, the person who was protecting the Prime Minister's back in the House, is gone. Meaning he is not even going to be in the Senate trying to avoid a pay cut

            Transport Minister David Collenette, the political minister for the GTA, is still there but he was refused the title of political minister for Ontario

            Alfonso Gagliano, the person in charge of the Québec machine, is gone too

            Basically Mr. Chrétien has changed the structure of his political machine in the House, in Quebec, in Ontario and in Atlantic Canada and there's more

            The Prime Minister has opened the door to Martinites, giving a signal that he is interested in doing business with them as well: Bill Graham (Toronto Centre-Rosedale, Ont.), former chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, was catapulted to Minister of Foreign Affairs. Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan-King-Aurora, Ont.), former chair of the House Finance Committee, was put into a junior portfolio, Anne McLellan (Edmonton West, Alta.) was moved from Justice to Health, a ministry that will be in the limelight in a few months

            In the process, the Prime Minister also somehow weakened Paul Martin firing one of his supporters, Jim Peterson (Willowdale, Ont.), and promoting another, Mr. Bevilacqua. The first was a devout follower of the minister of Finance while the second contributed greatly to the preparation of the budget.

            While I don't know who the next Chair of Finance Committee will be, the new responsibilities for Financial Institutions is John McCallum (Markham, Ont.), who might be politically naive, but is definitely not a political pussycat

            As I said at the beginning, Mr. Chrétien doesn't like to make decisions too far ahead, however, the shuffle announced last week is the program of a person who is not preparing for a golf tournament anytime soon.